Focus on the long-term welfare of people and society: Ask not what AI can do but what WE can ask it to do
“The question of the future of humans and AI seems impossible to answer because of unexplainable humans, not because of unexplainable AI. So much depends on our use and control of…
AI threatens to require society to redefine ‘what it means to be a person’ in the digital realm
“The outcome by 2040 depends a great deal, if not entirely, upon the regulatory framework created around AI. If we just consider the Internet, there have certainly been areas where…
We can create a great future, but it will require new infrastructure, policies and norms
“How our individual lives and society will change with the diffusion of AI depends less on technological innovations and more on policies and institutional arrangements in which they develop. It…
What happens to humans’ authenticity and autonomy when they are augmented with AI?
“As we look to the future, we might assume that the biggest existential threats to humanity lie in climate change and nuclear wars. As massive as those problems are, they…
The questions are, ‘Can humans say “no” to AI, and can AI say “no” to humans?’
“There are two critical uncertainties as we imagine 2040 scenarios: “In other words, can humans say ‘no’ to AI, and can AI say ‘no’ to humans? Note that the existence…
Blurred ‘truth’ and the erosion of trust are likely to deliver AI’s most significant impact
“By 2040 AI will permeate everything. It is highly likely that it will have passed the Turing test well before 2040. Many aspects of daily life will be easier and…
Our dilemma: ‘We won’t know what problems are salient until it may be too late’
“By 2040, the implementation of AI tools (along with related innovations and likely policy changes/self-regulatory efforts) will change life in material ways, sometimes for good but sometimes not. And, as…
Such good friends? Digital agents are likely to turn users into unknowing ‘agents of the machine’
“In computer-human interface design, the word ‘agent’ refers to chatbots and other seemingly autonomous entities that act on behalf of the computer in their interactions with us human users. It…
Which metrics of success will win the day – growth and productivity or finding joy and love?
“I’d like to share two potential outcomes: dystopian and non-dystopian. “The Dystopian View: Here’s what 2040 might look like if societal systems don’t change. In this scenario, society still values…
AI is the most-persuasive technology ever, and the most dangerous in greedy human hands
“AI is poised to be the most persuasive technology ever invented, which also makes it the most dangerous in greedy human hands. By 2040, we may decide to let AI…