‘AI’s ubiquity will tempt us to give up ownership, control and responsibility’
“Predicting the future is a tricky business under the best of circumstances and the world in 2023 is pretty far from the best of circumstances. At its core, AI is…
We’re in a world in which misinformation can feed off prior hallucinations
“Advances in science and medicine will likely be accelerated through the use of AI, perhaps in ways that are currently unimaginable. “There is a great deal to be hoped for…
The influence of AI between now and 2040 will be crosscutting and wide-ranging
“By 2040, I expect that we will experience major changes in our daily lives, both visible and invisible, resulting from AI. These changes are likely to be crosscutting, affecting healthcare,…
Positive outcomes must be imagined before they can become reality: Aim for human flourishing
“The first public, widely-accessible generative AI tools became available in the fall of 2022. In the 12 months since we have seen significant advances in every AI tool that is…
As AI becomes ordinary, we must understand the presumptions we are encoding
“It’s a truism in the AI world that as soon as a technology becomes reliable, it’s no longer considered to be AI. Machine translation used to be the most interesting…
The forward momentum of AI is probably far too powerful to restrain or direct
“The past few years have seen a distinct decline in the trust that citizens have in their institutions – political, business, educational, etc. Fake news and skepticism about science, expertise…
The problems raised by AI cannot be solved simply by bolting guardrails onto existing systems
“Popular visions of created intelligence as a utopic or dystopic force date back more than two centuries. Today it is possible to envision that artificial machine intelligence could cause dramatic…
We will be better off overall in 2040 if general purpose AI does not progress much, though social recalibration will be disruptive
“I start with two assumptions. The first is that we won’t see much progress on general-purpose AI in the next 15 years or so. If this is wrong, all bets…