“I see a future where AI plays a central role in reshaping production, work, governance, economics, communications, healthcare, education and personal identity. The responsible use of AI can lead to a more sustainable and equitable future, but it depends on how we build this future. Here are some key domains where AI can make a positive difference:
- “AI and work: There is an endless amount of work to be done building, maintaining, repairing and beautifying our cities; caring for our young, disabled and elderly; and restoring the natural environment. AI-assisted robots will replace some human labor, while AI systems will smooth the flow of materials and goods along the supply chain. AI will also enhance decision-making to deliver better outcomes, more quickly, at less cost, in complex environments. Together, these advances will allow more people to engage in unpaid meaningful activities. What those activities may be are limited only by human/AI imagination and money. People need money to survive and thrive. With sufficient money, most people will find plenty of meaningful activities to occupy their time.
At some point, all people who want it will have sufficient paid work to meet their needs, and all jobs will be filled within a reasonable time. AI can help find the balance. The economy will then be operating at peak efficiency, but with more activity going to provide basic needs, and less on other spending. Doing this would eliminate systemic poverty, while also providing a wage rise for low-paid workers, without cost to employers, thereby short-circuiting wage-push inflation.
- “Eliminating systemic poverty and promoting creative activity: I see a role for Universal Basic Income (UBI) in providing the money needed to realise John Maynard Keynes’ vision of a reduced work week. This can be done by raising the rate of UBI as automation, virtualization and AI alter the job market. As the UBI rate increases, some people will choose to reduce their working hours or exit the workforce to do other things with their life, making room for those who want paid employment. At some point, all people who want it will have sufficient paid work to meet their needs, and all jobs will be filled within a reasonable time. AI can help find the balance. The economy will then be operating at peak efficiency, but with more activity going to provide basic needs, and less on other spending. Doing this would eliminate systemic poverty, while also providing a wage rise for low-paid workers, without cost to employers, thereby short-circuiting wage-push inflation. A UBI can be introduced without raising taxes or increasing inflation, as this video shows.
3D, photo-realistic avatars containing your comprehensive personal data [can be] connected to various biometrics to enhance security, aggregating data from birth. The avatar will have full AI capabilities to understand your needs and wishes. … Everyone will trust the avatar as it will be part of a system of SSIDs from which your official-source data is provided by the authorities in question.
- “Personal avatars and self-sovereign identities (SSIDs): I envision the development of 3D, photo-realistic avatars containing your comprehensive personal data that are connected to various biometrics to enhance security, aggregating data from birth. The avatar will have full AI capabilities to understand your needs and wishes. You (not any other entity) would control access to the data within your avatar. So, for example, rather than having to give your name and address, if someone needs to confirm that you are a resident, the avatar will simply confirm that you are. Everyone will trust the avatar as it will be part of a system of SSIDs from which your official-source data is provided by the authorities in question (for example, the local council and registrar of births). This source data cannot be changed without going through a process with the data provider to validate the change.
- “AI and advertising and marketing: Advertising as we know it may become obsolete. Your personalised AI avatar could source goods and services from global databases, present the most relevant choices (possibly including a ‘surprise’) to users in 3D; and then facilitate purchase and shipping. This would leave room for marketing to influence consumer ‘wants,’ which the AI would consider when making recommendations, along with user reviews (linked to SSIDs, so you know they are by a real person). This would free people from ‘choice overload’ and eliminate the need for advertising, though not marketing.
- “Media consumption: There could be a new model for media consumption, where consumers pay a small fee per view directly to content creators, with a portion going to content curators and platforms. This shift away from advertising could lead to lower costs for goods and services and potentially improve curation of information as creators, curators and platforms vie for recognition for their accuracy and insight. While it won’t eliminate echo chambers, it should diminish their impact, as your AI scans all sources for a story and presents you with a range of sources that are credible (with perhaps different viewpoints) and you pay only for the ones you view.
- “Misinformation: To combat misinformation, a system can be created to link content to SSIDs. People could still post anonymously, but each post would link back to a confirmed SSID. You may not know who the content provider is, but you would know they are a person and not a bot.
- “Production and automation: AI can be part of a shift toward local, flexible production cells – powered by local energy sources and using automation and 3D printing – in which materials, parts, tools and team members guided by augmented reality move to each cell as required. These cells could create a wide range of makes and models. In effect, we would ship electrons around the world as ‘designs’ in lieu of shipping atoms in the form of products, greatly reducing costs and impact on the environment. The cells and supply chain would be programmable by designers from anywhere in the world.
We will have a complete working model of each thing and every building and piece of infrastructure and the ground beneath at all scales required for decision-making. People will have the same rights, responsibilities and restrictions in the model as in the physical entity the model represents. … You just go to where the thing is in the model, or, using AR, you look at the thing in the real world, and – if you are authorized you get access to the information. This will enable better decisions about changes to the real world and allow their execution to be made more quickly, at lower cost and with less risk.
- “Managing the built environment: We will have a complete working model of each thing and every building and piece of infrastructure and the ground beneath at all scales required for decision-making. People will have the same rights, responsibilities and restrictions in the model as in the physical entity the model represents. All information about any object will be linked to its model so the information can be searched for in its spatial context. You just go to where the thing is in the model, or, using AR, you look at the thing in the real world, and – if you are authorized (using your avatar/SSID) – you get access to the information. This will enable better decisions about changes to the real world and allow their execution to be made more quickly, at lower cost and with less risk than using traditional planning and project-management tools. This requires that each model include not only its physical attributes but also the legal and administrative boundaries that apply in the real world along with a new legal framework that mirrors the framework in the real world. This will ensure that any decision made in the model is made by the people who have the same powers in the real world so there is no disconnect (as now occurs). This will greatly reduce inefficiencies and disputes.
- “Tax and money system: I can envision a reformed tax system with flat-percentage taxes on all spending and rebates offered to avoid double taxation on resale of assets and all business spending. Combined with a basic income for all, this would create a progressive tax system that is simple to administer and difficult to evade. I also suggest that all public assets be purchased using borrowed money which is repaid over the life of the assets, maintaining balanced budgets, so that future taxpayers meet their share of the cost of the assets from which they benefit. I also recommend transitioning to Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDC) to reduce financial system fragility. These can be introduced in a way that does not disintermediate banks while eliminating the threat of bank runs and maintaining the same level of privacy as now. The approach is explained in this paper. CBDC have the advantage over cryptocurrencies in that they are subject to due process under the law of each jurisdiction. All taxes could be collected via your bank or banks when money is withdrawn to spend. This allows for the separate percentages for federal, state and local taxes to be calculated based on the location of your principal residence, so all taxes are collected at the one time, further simplifying administration. (Though you might still have levies and subsidies to take account of external factors, say to mitigate pollution, gambling, etc.)
- “Governance and community decision-making: Let’s also move toward direct democracy using citizen juries selected by lot to evaluate and decide on issues, aided by AI and 3D simulations of the world. Over time, this could reduce the influence of political parties and increase citizens’ participation in decision-making.
“Overall, the approaches outlined here should reduce crime and conflict while improving health and education, making it harder for authoritarianism to flourish, though sectarian conflicts will remain a significant threat.”
This essay was written in November 2023 in reply to the question: Considering likely changes due to the proliferation of AI in individuals’ lives and in social, economic and political systems, how will life have changed by 2040? This and more than 150 additional essay responses are included in the report “The Impact of Artificial Intelligence by 2040”