“In the next 15 or so years, AI (not AGI) will arguably complement humans by improving the productivity of workers of every kind and by creating new, augmented tasks and capabilities with the powerful help of machine learning. It will also provide better and more usable information for human decision-making and long-term planning.
“In a messy world of global permacrisis, some countries will react by using AI-charged authoritarianism. … This could lead to even higher levels of surveillance, a complete loss of privacy and new threats to the rule of law and fundamental rights. … Masses of electronic documents will be modified in hindsight to fit special interests’ points of view, including scientific articles and books. As a result, the future AI societies could easily lose all reference points to the truths they now have.
“By 2040, new digital platforms will give people with different skills or needs the opportunity to become connected. Nation-states will seriously confront the most severe AI-related cyber-risks – e.g., data leaks, cyberattacks and automated wars – and bio-risks such as engineered pandemics. Sounds good, but along with all of this arrives a panoply of problems.
“In a messy world of global permacrisis, some countries will react by using AI-charged authoritarianism to avoid or slow down the emergence and cascade of such risks. This could lead to even higher levels of surveillance, a complete loss of privacy and new threats to the rule of law and fundamental rights.
“In parallel with this, we can expect the much broader spread of deepfakes, disinformation and post-truth content, to the extent that masses of electronic documents will be modified in hindsight to fit special interests’ points of view, including scientific articles and books. As a result, the future AI societies could easily lose all reference points to the truths they now have.
“The inconceivable dissemination of AI-generated bots and fake news in polarized political discourse will gradually be linked to alternative understandings of truth and honesty, as well as to the further disintegration of liberal democracy, public trust and civic mindedness. Therefore, what is most likely to be lost is democratic citizenship and genuine faith in liberal values, as well as the Aristotelean middle ground in democratic politics, which already appears to be shrinking.
What is most likely to be lost is democratic citizenship and genuine faith in liberal values, as well as the Aristotelean middle ground in democratic politics, which already appears to be shrinking.
“In the same context, AI will be a serious threat to quality journalism and the autonomy of traditional media. At the level of individuals’ daily lives, most people will be glued to their social media and caught up in their algorithmically constructed, private virtual worlds, perhaps living in an online goblin mode. This will disconnect them from real experience and empathic face-to-face (or human-to-human) communication, as well as from their community and democratic discourse because in the newly segregated reality extremist and toxic voices are loudest and much more attractive.
“Within abound social networking environments, manipulative, unethical, abusive and addictive behaviors will tend to be the norm, despite the unprecedented number of education opportunities and cultural resources available to the public. Like-minded atomized individuals will have the perceived chance to create numerous life purposes within their boredom-free artificial echo chambers, while experiencing, however, very little exposure to real human friendship or companionship.”
This essay was written in November 2023 in reply to the question: Considering likely changes due to the proliferation of AI in individuals’ lives and in social, economic and political systems, how will life have changed by 2040? This and more than 150 additional essay responses are included in the report “The Impact of Artificial Intelligence by 2040”