Given AI’s great potential, preventing it from turning into the sorcerer’s apprentice is the primary challenge
“I view this question as depending on what happens to current AI, meaning in practice, to current generative AI. For purposes of this exercise, let’s consider two possible outcomes for…
Our dilemma: ‘We won’t know what problems are salient until it may be too late’
“By 2040, the implementation of AI tools (along with related innovations and likely policy changes/self-regulatory efforts) will change life in material ways, sometimes for good but sometimes not. And, as…
Humans are being moved out of ‘the loop’; they might land next in the metaverse
“While I hesitate to claim that all of the ideas I share will all be fully realized by 2040, I think at the very least we’ll see significant progress on…
Climate change, housing/refugee and economic inequity crises will play a huge role in 2040
“While AI is exploding now, it is not happening in isolation. Other factors are having a powerful impact on individuals and social systems, namely: “Some would set AI advancements and…
Will AI amplify or reverse trajectories we are now riding?
“If we avoid succumbing to an existential crisis, by 2040 AI will have changed life for those who can afford expensive health care and surgical procedures, homes and vehicles constructed…
The problems raised by AI cannot be solved simply by bolting guardrails onto existing systems
“Popular visions of created intelligence as a utopic or dystopic force date back more than two centuries. Today it is possible to envision that artificial machine intelligence could cause dramatic…
We will be better off overall in 2040 if general purpose AI does not progress much, though social recalibration will be disruptive
“I start with two assumptions. The first is that we won’t see much progress on general-purpose AI in the next 15 years or so. If this is wrong, all bets…
AI seems magical now, but it really offers only flawed and limited promise
“While we will continue to see significant advances from AI in many ways, the raw power of simulating intelligent behavior through LLMs will plateau as a result of model collapse…
AIs’ talent for managing the transit of information, people and vehicles will reshape our lives
“Life will change markedly by 2040 due in part to the huge strides in the evolution of large language models that we are already seeing. “Education systems will necessarily be…