Our dilemma: ‘We won’t know what problems are salient until it may be too late’
“By 2040, the implementation of AI tools (along with related innovations and likely policy changes/self-regulatory efforts) will change life in material ways, sometimes for good but sometimes not. And, as…
Which metrics of success will win the day – growth and productivity or finding joy and love?
“I’d like to share two potential outcomes: dystopian and non-dystopian. “The Dystopian View: Here’s what 2040 might look like if societal systems don’t change. In this scenario, society still values…
AI is the most-persuasive technology ever, and the most dangerous in greedy human hands
“AI is poised to be the most persuasive technology ever invented, which also makes it the most dangerous in greedy human hands. By 2040, we may decide to let AI…
The problems raised by AI cannot be solved simply by bolting guardrails onto existing systems
“Popular visions of created intelligence as a utopic or dystopic force date back more than two centuries. Today it is possible to envision that artificial machine intelligence could cause dramatic…
We will be better off overall in 2040 if general purpose AI does not progress much, though social recalibration will be disruptive
“I start with two assumptions. The first is that we won’t see much progress on general-purpose AI in the next 15 years or so. If this is wrong, all bets…