Blurred ‘truth’ and the erosion of trust are likely to deliver AI’s most significant impact
“By 2040 AI will permeate everything. It is highly likely that it will have passed the Turing test well before 2040. Many aspects of daily life will be easier and…
AI advances will bring the metaverse up to speed and accelerate 5G/6G and smart cities
“It’s tempting to consider the future of AI as vertical, but technologies do not develop in vacuums. They enable, accelerate and even frustrate each other. “For instance, further developments in…
AI is the most-persuasive technology ever, and the most dangerous in greedy human hands
“AI is poised to be the most persuasive technology ever invented, which also makes it the most dangerous in greedy human hands. By 2040, we may decide to let AI…
A ‘celebration society’ will emerge as abundance becomes civilization’s natural state
“Assuming AGI is achieved soon, we may finally stand on the threshold of a sufficient combination of intelligence (via AI), matter (via asteroid mining) and energy from various clean sources…
Will AI amplify or reverse trajectories we are now riding?
“If we avoid succumbing to an existential crisis, by 2040 AI will have changed life for those who can afford expensive health care and surgical procedures, homes and vehicles constructed…
Should AIs be required to get a ‘driver’s license’ that certifies them as socially competent?
“Let’s confront some big questions about AI in a Q-A-style interview format: “Question: Where does AI begin and where does it end? The answer is that AI will probably have…
Don’t underestimate the dangers of unintended consequences embraced out of ignorance
“In the next 15 or so years, AI (not AGI) will arguably complement humans by improving the productivity of workers of every kind and by creating new, augmented tasks and…
Positive outcomes must be imagined before they can become reality: Aim for human flourishing
“The first public, widely-accessible generative AI tools became available in the fall of 2022. In the 12 months since we have seen significant advances in every AI tool that is…
The problems raised by AI cannot be solved simply by bolting guardrails onto existing systems
“Popular visions of created intelligence as a utopic or dystopic force date back more than two centuries. Today it is possible to envision that artificial machine intelligence could cause dramatic…
We will be better off overall in 2040 if general purpose AI does not progress much, though social recalibration will be disruptive
“I start with two assumptions. The first is that we won’t see much progress on general-purpose AI in the next 15 years or so. If this is wrong, all bets…