Expect Significant Impact by 2035: Imperfect Systems Will Be Routinely Used By People and AIs, Creating Potential for Considerable Turmoil and Problems With Unwarranted Trust
“Given the past decade of AI research results, especially the emergence of generative, multi-modal large language models (LLMs), we can anticipate significant impact by 2035. These tools are surprising in…
Dangers Arise as AI becomes Humanlike. How Do We Retain a Sense of Human Dignity? They Will Become Self-Aware and ‘Inner Lights of Consciousness Will Come On for Them’
“AI large language models [LLMs] are not actually intelligences, they are information-retrieval tools. As such they are astonishing but also fundamentally limited and even flawed. Basically, the hallucinations generated by…
Our dilemma: ‘We won’t know what problems are salient until it may be too late’
“By 2040, the implementation of AI tools (along with related innovations and likely policy changes/self-regulatory efforts) will change life in material ways, sometimes for good but sometimes not. And, as…
Which metrics of success will win the day – growth and productivity or finding joy and love?
“I’d like to share two potential outcomes: dystopian and non-dystopian. “The Dystopian View: Here’s what 2040 might look like if societal systems don’t change. In this scenario, society still values…
Climate change, housing/refugee and economic inequity crises will play a huge role in 2040
“While AI is exploding now, it is not happening in isolation. Other factors are having a powerful impact on individuals and social systems, namely: “Some would set AI advancements and…
If we design our institutional ‘operating systems’ correctly we can realize a future of unprecedented progress and well-being
“The AI discourse has been too fixated on a possible impending doomsday due to AI that could spiral out of control. The pressing, tangible challenges just at the threshold of…
The fight to gain first-mover and network effects advantages is on. Will AI meet expectations?
“Of course, many people are thinking about the issues around AIs – especially the major industry players – but I’m not confident that values beyond efficiency, novelty and profit will…
The problems raised by AI cannot be solved simply by bolting guardrails onto existing systems
“Popular visions of created intelligence as a utopic or dystopic force date back more than two centuries. Today it is possible to envision that artificial machine intelligence could cause dramatic…
We will be better off overall in 2040 if general purpose AI does not progress much, though social recalibration will be disruptive
“I start with two assumptions. The first is that we won’t see much progress on general-purpose AI in the next 15 years or so. If this is wrong, all bets…
AI seems magical now, but it really offers only flawed and limited promise
“While we will continue to see significant advances from AI in many ways, the raw power of simulating intelligent behavior through LLMs will plateau as a result of model collapse…