November 2023
The influence of AI between now and 2040 will be crosscutting and wide-ranging
“By 2040, I expect that we will experience major changes in our daily lives, both visible and invisible, resulting from AI. These changes are likely to be crosscutting, affecting healthcare,…
November 2023
The forward momentum of AI is probably far too powerful to restrain or direct
“The past few years have seen a distinct decline in the trust that citizens have in their institutions – political, business, educational, etc. Fake news and skepticism about science, expertise…
November 2023
We will be better off overall in 2040 if general purpose AI does not progress much, though social recalibration will be disruptive
“I start with two assumptions. The first is that we won’t see much progress on general-purpose AI in the next 15 years or so. If this is wrong, all bets…
November 2023
Focus on how to co-exist with super-empowered, transnational organizations and individuals
“The distraction here is focusing on questions that are framed as: What if AI did XYZ to humanity? Instead, we really should be focusing on how we learn to co-exist…