“The changes in daily life due to AI will likely be both profound and largely invisible by 2040. Profound, because the use of complex algorithms driven by massive computing power processing vast quantities of data will increasingly be woven through the fabric of daily life in moderately wealthier communities, applied to hiring and employment, personal finance systems, shopping, environmental controls in buildings and infrastructure, navigating the internet, communication systems, transportation systems, the criminal justice system and health systems.
“They will also be profound because the costs and impacts of these systems in the form of human labor, material extraction and refining, manufacturing, shipping and, later, disposal will continue to be disproportionately borne by poorer communities globally.
If the public does not become aware of or understand the role that this technology plays in daily life and what it truly costs to maintain and find some way to effective positive change in regard to its looming challenges, there will be few obstacles to the continued adoption of AI.
“Vast quantities of energy are needed to drive these systems, which, for the time being, come with an unacceptably high carbon cost. Processes of extraction, manufacture and disposal already wreak ecological havoc. Human labor is needed to mine the materials, including rare earth minerals, that form the tangible stuff of AI, as well as to assemble it into the necessary equipment, and ultimately to dispose of it. Human labor is also needed to maintain and grow the informational component of computing systems, from guiding algorithms and correcting errors, to ‘feeding’ the AI by labeling content and data.
“Much of this change will be invisible, as so much of what AI does happens beneath the surface of daily life – in the cloud, within the systems that control infrastructure – and also because the material, environmental and human costs of the technology happen outside of moderately wealthy communities.
“If the public does not become aware of or understand the role that this technology plays in daily life and what it truly costs to maintain and find some way to effective positive change in regard to its looming challenges, there will be few obstacles to the continued adoption of AI.
“The calculations and decisions of AI will cause people to have opportunities or to be barred from them in ways that are obscure, hidden and difficult to correct. The voices of the voiceless will continue to be underrepresented in AI systems, just as has been the case in past industrial and computing ‘revolutions.’”
This essay was written in November 2023 in reply to the question: Considering likely changes due to the proliferation of AI in individuals’ lives and in social, economic and political systems, how will life have changed by 2040? This and more than 150 additional essay responses are included in the report “The Impact of Artificial Intelligence by 2040”