“By 2040, for most of the population, AI’s daily influence will appear to be rather benign and quite useful, but the purveyors of AI will invest their efforts toward creating and operating applications that feature the most potential to generate revenue. AI ‘agents’ are tools tech companies are conceiving to act as people’s helpful ‘personal advisors’ on any variety of topics.
“The recent announcement by Meta of its suite of AI ‘personalities’ is one example. It is likely these agents will be programmed to nudge those they ‘advise’ toward products and revenue-generating options packaged as advice.
“As AI progresses and learns, it (more accurately, they, as there will be abundant AIs) will come to understand each individual and their psychological and emotional makeup. I assume history will repeat itself, as advertising and the aspect of AI that generates data leading to revenue will be prolific.
“The effectiveness of advertising is very much about psycho-social understanding. Each individual, to a large part, already has an advertiser’s profile, a database that ‘understands’ each, including their psychology, behaviors and social circles. Advanced AI can fine-tune and combine existing databases on individuals that not only include basics, such as websites visited, items viewed, etc., but will also include much more personal conclusions about the person, their life and their motivations for their actions.
“This can be a very positive thing if the information is confidentially used to people’s benefit, for things like mental health services, social matchmaking and other options that will allow for personal growth and development. Apps for meditation, (such as the current VR apps Maloka and TRIPP), apps for peer-based support (such as the VR app InnerWorld) and others, will likely use AI to provide more-individualized support and well-being options.
It is easy to imagine an AI-driven war over people’s minds and emotions motivated by criminals and self-interested individuals in politics, government and business. … When deepfakes are combined with AI, powerful alternative realities can be created and these alternative realities can easily sway perceptions, beliefs, emotions and actions. Those who lack the capacity to discern what is a created reality from what is a naturally occurring reality will continue to be exploited.
“But AIs already are and will continue to introduce privacy concerns that go far beyond simple behaviors and habits. AI’s ‘understanding’ of a person will likely surpass most individuals’ understanding of themselves. This dimension of understanding invades personal privacy in ways that could easily be exploited to manipulate individuals in extreme ways.
“It is easy to imagine an AI-driven war over people’s minds and emotions motivated by criminals and self-interested individuals in politics, government and business. A database that provides a much fuller picture of an individual (potentially a fuller picture than the person has of themself) is one that could hold great power over not only the individual but over groups of individuals and society at large.
“The areas that are of greatest concern to me are in the areas of politics and the so-called ‘culture war.’ When deepfakes are combined with AI, powerful alternative realities can be created. These alternative realities can easily sway perceptions, beliefs, emotions and actions. Those who lack the capacity to discern what is a created reality from what is a naturally occurring reality will continue to be exploited. Without proper safeguards and regulations, divisions in society will increase.
“There is a broader range of negative results that can come from the scenarios described above. Aspects of people’s mental resourcefulness will continue to be significantly influenced by their uses of AI. They will be less likely to write their own stories and to read deeply and be challenged to think in creative ways as AI becomes more of a tool to replace things like art, literacy and a broad vocabulary.
“When information is presented in a personal and friendly way by AI, the need for mental resourcefulness (including the skill of critical thinking) when working through problems or finding answers to questions decreases as the information presented is immediately trusted, being considered as presented by a sort of AI ‘friend.’ People are likely to continue to become more passive, and dependency on AI and other technologies that arise from it will increase dramatically.
Disabilities will be overcome, chronic diseases cured, and self-care will become more effective and integrated into our daily lives through discoveries made by AI and advice offered by personal AI ‘assistants’ or ‘agents.’ …The potential for humankind to improve our own personal performance will exist simply through the competition that will arise between human efforts and those put forth by AI. I think AI will push many to rise to a more-sophisticated level of personal achievement.
“There are other positives. AI’s most-positive influence will lie in the areas of science and medicine. I anticipate cures for illnesses, more-comprehensive and effective treatment plans and better general care through the gathering and distribution of more-complete medical histories and a clearer picture of the interaction of the various biological systems within the body.
“Disabilities will be overcome, chronic diseases cured, and self-care will become more effective and integrated into our daily lives through discoveries made by AI and advice offered by personal AI ‘assistants’ or ‘agents.’
“We will gain a better understanding of our planet and our universe through AI tools that can ‘think’ logically and learn. Current theories on topics like creation and evolution (of life, planets, and the universe) will be proven and disproven as new theories arise.
“The potential for humankind to improve our own personal performance will exist simply through the competition that will arise between human efforts and those put forth by AI. I think AI will push many to rise to a more-sophisticated level of personal achievement if they feel that they could be rendered ‘useless’ in comparison.”
This essay was written in November 2023 in reply to the question: Considering likely changes due to the proliferation of AI in individuals’ lives and in social, economic and political systems, how will life have changed by 2040? This and more than 150 additional responses are included in the report “The Impact of Artificial Intelligence by 2040”