“As the pressure to regulate artificial intelligence continues to grow, concerns about the potential dangers of this powerful technology are also on the rise. Superpowers, including the U.S., China, the UK and the European Union, recently united in the UK to sign a statement acknowledging the dire threat that AI poses to humankind and stressing the ‘need for international action’ to address this threat. In my view, we’ll have achieved artificial general intelligence (AGI) by 2040. In a world marked by hatred, greed and self-interest at the top echelons of business and politics, experts hold differing opinions. Some believe AI fears are unfounded and draw parallels with previous industrial revolutions that eventually proved beneficial. Some argue that AI could potentially pose a significant threat to humanity, necessitating stringent regulation. I’d like to examine past revolutions to project the impact of AI in 2040.
“The First Industrial Revolution, in the 18th century, brought about profound structural changes as agricultural and rural societies transitioned to industrial and urban ones, primarily in Britain. It had a significant impact on employment, displacing manual farm workers with mechanisation. However, over time, people found new opportunities in the textile and iron industries, aided by additional technology developments such as the water wheel and the steam engine, which played pivotal roles in the Industrial Revolution.
“The Second Industrial Revolution occurred in the 19th century, leading into World War I, when existing industries expanded and harnessed electric power for mass production while new initiatives emerged. This period witnessed many important technological advancements, including the invention of the light bulb, the telephone and telephone networks and the internal combustion engine. Transitioning from steam power to electricity resulted in job losses, but those who adapted by re-skilling as electricians retained their positions. New jobs that had never existed before also emerged.
“The Third Industrial Revolution unfolded in the mid-20th century, ushering in the Digital Revolution, characterised by the shift from analogue electronic and mechanical devices to today’s digital technology. This era brought about personal computers, the Internet and information and communications technology. While, initially, many jobs were replaced by computers and robots, those who acquired computer literacy secured employment in newly created jobs. Categories such as software and hardware engineers emerged, extending beyond the countries that had benefited from the Second Industrial Revolution to include many Global South nations.
People worldwide must start finding ways to harmonize and work together toward the responsible use of AI. It is vital to identify the risks associated with AI now and take steps to mitigate these risks. AI systems must be transparent and accountable and used to promote human rights and well-being. If it is used ethically, it will further improve the quality of life for people worldwide. It will be used to address some of the world’s most-pressing challenges, climate change, poverty and disease.
“Now, we are entering the Fourth Industrial Revolution, which builds upon its predecessors. Its full impact remains unclear. This revolution features innovations in AI, biotechnology, nanotechnology, quantum computing, the Internet of Things and other emerging technologies. We should prioritise ensuring that everyone possesses the necessary skills to harness the potential of these new technologies. While AI applications may help reduce global inequalities and increase incomes, some experts believe that, among its potential downsides, that AI could pose a severe threat to humanity in the future. Some ‘advocate for strict regulation. In my view, this is a problematic approach. As the Swahili saying goes, ‘Dawa ya moto ni moto,’ loosely translated, this is to say that the remedy for extinguishing fire is to use fire.
“People worldwide must start finding ways to harmonize and work together toward the responsible use of AI. It is vital to identify the risks associated with AI now and take steps to mitigate these risks. AI systems must be transparent and accountable and used to promote human rights and well-being. If it is used ethically, it will further improve the quality of life for people worldwide. It will be used to address some of the world’s most-pressing challenges, climate change, poverty and disease.
“We can work to ensure ethical AI by spreading knowledge about AI and fostering a global environment that encourages creativity and innovation while pursuing sustainable regulatory mechanisms. The recent outcomes of the UK AI Summit, at which developers agreed to collaborate with governments to test new frontier models before their release to mitigate the risks of rapidly developing technology, are a promising step.
As we stand on the cusp of the Fourth Industrial Revolution our response to the potential risks and rewards of this era will shape the course of human progress. The lessons from past industrial revolutions, which saw the transformation of job markets and entire societies, should guide us toward embracing the future cautiously and optimistically. ...Responsible regulation and ethical considerations are crucial to safeguarding humanity while unlocking the vast potential of these innovations. Recent collaborative efforts and agreements among superpowers, along with initiatives to ensure equitable skill development, offer hope that we can navigate this revolution successfully. The choice we face is not to restrict knowledge but to spread it.
“Several governments, including the US, the UK, China, and the EU, signed the declaration, though further efforts are needed to engage other AI industry giants in committing to ethical practices. U.S. President Joe Biden’s executive order introduces new guidelines for AI safety, security, privacy, civil rights, equity, workers’ and consumers’ interests, innovation, competition and global leadership. While it may seem insular, it represents a new beginning for monitoring AI development while promoting innovation. China also issued ethics guidelines governing artificial intelligence. These guidelines prioritise protecting users’ rights and preventing risks, aligning with Beijing’s objective of reining in Big Tech’s influence and its aim to become the global leader in AI by 2030.
“While it is true that AI could pose serious challenges, we are still years away from AGI. At least for now, we can take comfort from the researchers in AI and neuroscience who say that current forms of AI cannot experience their own emotions. But they can mimic emotions such as empathy in writing and in vocal conversation; today’s synthesised speech can emit realistic feelings. Perhaps by 2040 our uses of AI might raise more issues, so we must think about human sustainability.
“As we stand on the cusp of the Fourth Industrial Revolution our response to the potential risks and rewards of this era will shape the course of human progress. The lessons from past industrial revolutions, which saw the transformation of job markets and entire societies, should guide us toward embracing the future cautiously and optimistically.
“Responsible regulation and ethical considerations are crucial to safeguarding humanity while unlocking the vast potential of these innovations. Recent collaborative efforts and agreements among superpowers, along with initiatives to ensure equitable skill development, offer hope that we can navigate this revolution successfully. The choice we face is not to restrict knowledge but to spread it.”
This essay was written in November 2023 in reply to the question: Considering likely changes due to the proliferation of AI in individuals’ lives and in social, economic and political systems, how will life have changed by 2040? This and more than 150 additional essay responses are included in the report “The Impact of Artificial Intelligence by 2040”