There is likely to be an AI-driven war over people’s minds and emotions
“By 2040, for most of the population, AI’s daily influence will appear to be rather benign and quite useful, but the purveyors of AI will invest their efforts toward creating…
Our dilemma: ‘We won’t know what problems are salient until it may be too late’
“By 2040, the implementation of AI tools (along with related innovations and likely policy changes/self-regulatory efforts) will change life in material ways, sometimes for good but sometimes not. And, as…
Thought is no longer generated from solo insights; it is the end product of a shared brain
“By 2040, adjunct intelligence will be everywhere, exercising a dramatic effect on each person’s identity and individual perception. AI’s collective powers and uber-reasoning are arriving as a silent encroaching on…
Proactive moves to promote the use of AI to enhance democracy are crucial to mitigating risk
“The proliferation of artificial intelligence is poised to usher in profound changes by 2040. AI has already reshaped our daily lives. While the promise of AI is still unfolding, the…
Humans are being moved out of ‘the loop’; they might land next in the metaverse
“While I hesitate to claim that all of the ideas I share will all be fully realized by 2040, I think at the very least we’ll see significant progress on…
Agile governance must meet the dynamic challenges of future complex adaptive systems
“Managing and understanding the risks and nonlinearities of future advances will be a critical challenge from now and beyond. “Sophisticated models and agile governance mechanisms will be required to responsibly…
Don’t underestimate the dangers of unintended consequences embraced out of ignorance
“In the next 15 or so years, AI (not AGI) will arguably complement humans by improving the productivity of workers of every kind and by creating new, augmented tasks and…
The influence of AI between now and 2040 will be crosscutting and wide-ranging
“By 2040, I expect that we will experience major changes in our daily lives, both visible and invisible, resulting from AI. These changes are likely to be crosscutting, affecting healthcare,…
Positive outcomes must be imagined before they can become reality: Aim for human flourishing
“The first public, widely-accessible generative AI tools became available in the fall of 2022. In the 12 months since we have seen significant advances in every AI tool that is…
We will be better off overall in 2040 if general purpose AI does not progress much, though social recalibration will be disruptive
“I start with two assumptions. The first is that we won’t see much progress on general-purpose AI in the next 15 years or so. If this is wrong, all bets…