Theme 5
While most of these experts wrote primarily about the challenges of AI, many described likely gains to be seen as AI diffuses through society. They said they expect that most people will enjoy and benefit from AI’s assistance across all sectors, especially in education, business, research and medicine/health. Many expect that it will boost innovation and reconfigure and possibly liberate people’s use of time. Following are excerpts from experts who shared optimistic 2040 predictions.
Jerome Glenn
Augmented intelligence can inspire humanity to significantly upgrade everything
Jerome C. Glenn, co-founder and CEO of The Millennium Project, shared this scenario: “Ideally, in 2040 the transition to the self-actualization economy will have begun. We will have come a long way since the 2020s. For the first time in history, humanity will be highly engaged in conversations about what kind of civilization it wants and what we, as individuals and as a species, want to become.
Humanity will be freed from the necessity of having a job to earn a living and to achieve self-respect. The initiation of the transition from the job economy to the self-actualization economy will be well underway.
“Movies, global cyber games, UN summits, VR news, flash mob cyber teach-ins and global thought leaders will lead us in probing the meaning of life and the possible future as never before.
“The historic shift from human labor and knowledge to machine labor and knowledge is clear: humanity will be freed from the necessity of having a job to earn a living and to achieve self-respect. The initiation of the transition from the job economy to the self-actualization economy will be well underway. By the mid-2030s, humanity will begin to break free from work-life anxiety and pressure as artificial narrow intelligence (ANI) becomes more universal and as artificial general intelligence (AGI) emerges.
“When we look back at how this happened, we will see that the universal basic income (UBI) experiments in the early 21st century were shown to have positive effects in Brazil, Finland, Switzerland and the Basque region of Spain. Earlier experiments on a smaller scale that gave basic income to groups in India, Liberia, Kenya, Namibia and Uganda will also show that people tended to use their basic income to make more income.
“Studies will also show that in communities in which people were given a free basic income, health increased, crime decreased, education improved and self-employment increased, contrary to earlier criticism that guaranteed income would ‘make everyone lazy.’ UBI efforts in Finland and the UK show that their supplemental cash payment system that consolidated welfare programs is more efficient than complex bureaucracies.
New technology since the 2020s will have created by 2040 as many or more new kinds of human activity than it has replaced. The concept of unemployment will lose its meaning.
“As the world will become increasingly aware in the 2020s that growth by itself is no longer increasing wages and employment, thought leaders will begin to call more loudly for new economic approaches. The earlier attempts to reduce the global unemployment situation by doing things like changing tax credits, increasing the power of labor unions, improving STEM (science, technology, engineering and mathematics) education, promoting job sharing and reducing work hours help somewhat but make only marginal differences. Something far more fundamental is happening: AI is emerging as the solution.
“Just as the industrial revolution in the 1700s to 1800s began replacing human muscles on the job, the AI revolution is beginning to replace human brains. At first, the numbers of the unemployed will continue to increase due to new technologies. Lobbying for a basic income for all will become more widespread, but the cost of living in the 2020s will still be too high for national budgets to afford. It will not be until the mid-2030s that the cost of living will begin to fall enough and government income will begin to increase enough that basic-income systems will become financially sustainable.
“New technology since the 2020s will have created by 2040 as many or more new kinds of human activity than it has replaced. The concept of unemployment will lose its meaning when a new young ‘Globals’ generation comes along just as AGI begins to integrate and manage countless artificial narrow intelligence programs in the 2030s. The new AI will maintain and improve the basic infrastructure of civilization, from waste management and flood control of rivers to the use of millions of robotic vehicles in the air, land and sea. The cost of running cities and suburbs will begin to fall.
Advances in materials science, 3D/4D and bio-printing, biomimicry, nanotech graphene that lasts longer with less need for repairs and other new technologies will have reduced the costs of construction, fabrication, maintenance, water, energy, medical drugs and the retro-fitting of infrastructures. …Defense spending will be reduced because cyber systems are less expensive to maintain and build.
“By 2040, AI and robotic urban people-mover systems will have made free public transportation possible in many cities and Hyperloop-connected cities will have begun lowering their costs for high-speed transportation. AI efficiency-managed transportation will have reduced operating costs, as will telecommuting.
“Advances in materials science, 3D/4D and bio-printing, biomimicry, nanotech graphene that lasts longer with less need for repairs and other new technologies will have reduced the costs of construction, fabrication, maintenance, water, energy, medical drugs and the retrofitting of infrastructures.
“Atomically precise manufacturing due to AI will have reduced costs by reducing pollution, friction and delays across every aspect of society, eliminating imperfections and failures and lowering the material and energy costs per unit of production.
In 2040, food costs will be reduced due to AI/robotic fresh- and saltwater agriculture, pure meat produced by culturing real animal cells in vitro, synthetic biology and AI/robotic delivery systems that deliver food from farm to table. Tele-health, tele-education, tele-everything will also have lowered the cost of living. … 2040’s UBI will help reduce stress, stress-related costs in health care and crime will also be reduced.
“Computational physics will have found replacements for many scarce and expensive natural resources. Improved recycling and other green technologies will have lowered costs of environmental maintenance. Other energy costs will be reduced by low-energy nuclear reactions (LENRs – previously referred to as ‘cold fusion’), solar, wind, drilled hot-rock geothermal and massive storage systems. More-efficient buildings that create their own energy will reduce the cost of shelter and environmental impacts. Most windows in 2040 will come with imbedded nano-photovoltaic material.
“In 2040, food costs will be reduced due to AI/robotic fresh- and saltwater agriculture, pure meat produced by culturing real animal cells in vitro, synthetic biology and AI/robotic delivery systems that deliver food from farm to table. Tele-health, tele-education, tele-everything will also have lowered the cost of living.
“Because 2040’s UBI will help reduce stress, stress-related costs in health care and crime will also be reduced. AI and robots that are not paid will work 24 hours a day seven days per week make far few errors and receive no paid vacations or health or retirement benefits; the costs of insurance, production, maintenance and labor will be dramatically lowered. Genomic personalized medicine with AI-augmented diagnostics, treatment, bio-printing, synthetic biology and robotic surgery will make it possible to offer public health care as a right of citizenship.
“Defense spending will be reduced because cyber systems are less expensive to maintain and build than industrial-age military systems. As the costs of many things continue to decrease, the budget requirements for UBI will also decrease. This will reinforce the belief that it will be possible to financially maintain universal payments to citizens into the future.
“MOOCs (massive, open, online courses) and AI-augmented global education systems and apps will make it possible to offer free public education from early childhood to the PhD. Multi-material 3D/4D printers in community maker hubs will have continuously improved the quality of objects by rewriting software based on feedback from global sensor networks that evaluate the efficiency of previously printed objects around the world. Much software will be free, able to be copied perfectly, instantly and worldwide. The whole world will get smarter together in real time.”
Ray Schroeder
Evidence-based decision-making will lead to compassionate policies and practices
Ray Schroeder, professor emeritus and former associate vice chancellor for online learning at the University of Illinois, Springfield, predicted, “Much more will be gained than will be lost due to artificial intelligence in the coming 15 years. It will significantly enhance lives worldwide. Overriding all of the changes will be the greatly enhanced access to learning. AI will enable people of all cultures, income levels, social status, races, gender and ages above three or four years to avail themselves of access to knowledge, logic, perspectives and projections. Access to AI tools will facilitate decision-making in careers, personal lives, purchasing and planning. Learning levels will increase.
AI will foster rational and evidence-based decision-making. This will assist in democracies making compassionate decisions in policies and practices. Truth-checking will be facilitated and available to all who are willing to examine facts. … Consensus will be built upon evidence-based facts uncovered by artificial intelligence.
“More broadly and collectively, AI will foster rational and evidence-based decision-making. This will assist in democracies making compassionate decisions in policies and practices. Truth-checking will be facilitated and available to all who are willing to examine facts. That is not to say that opinions or values will not continue to vary, but the factual basis upon which those personal perspectives are built will be open equally to all. Consensus will be built upon evidence-based facts uncovered by Artificial Intelligence.
“The efficiencies provided by AI in the corporate environment will result in less human time spent to achieve analogous outcomes. In fact, many goods and services will decline in cost to produce. Work weeks will shorten in large part due to efficiencies created by AI. This will result in greater personal and leisure time for workers. That available time will enable greater opportunities for creative and volunteer work by individuals. These unpaid contributions to society will become important assets in elevating overall enrichment. Time for recreation will also expand.
“Advances in health care and medicine will be greatly accelerated. These advances will reduce human suffering and improve the productivity of those freed from maladies that otherwise have limited their contribution to society. Of course, the advent of AI will promote greater equality by improving health care.
“I expect that the overall human condition will improve intellectually, physically and emotionally. We humans will have a sophisticated and ultimately well-informed, unbiased measure of truth and facts. It is my hope and belief that this will help us to lose our prejudices, biases and lack of knowledge.”
Terri Horton
Hyper-efficiency and productivity will accelerate innovation at scale
Terri Horton, founder of FuturePath, said, “In 2040, AI will usher in an era of enterprise hyper-efficiency and productivity that accelerates innovation at scale. The proliferation of AI will present a robust landscape of enhanced human capabilities that unlock human potential, amplify human intellect, enable the pursuit of meaningful work and catalyze many societal advances.
The proliferation of AI will present a robust landscape of enhanced human capabilities that unlock human potential, amplify human intellect, enable the pursuit of meaningful work and catalyze many societal advances. … Mitigating the challenges of 2040 will require new, harmonized efforts and initiatives from policymakers, industry leaders and the global community.
“However, in 2040, the benefits of AI could be unevenly distributed, exacerbating economic and social disparities. This could mean that we will face the challenges and impact of profound AI-driven job displacement and the monumental task of providing the pathways and resources required for the constant upskilling and reskilling of workers to keep pace with the rate of change.
“Mitigating the challenges of 2040 will require new, harmonized efforts and initiatives from policymakers, industry leaders and the global community to ensure an equitable AI-driven society.”
Bitange Ndemo
We will identify risks and take steps now to mitigate them
Bitange Ndemo, professor of entrepreneurship at the University of Nairobi Business School and chair of the Kenya AI Task Force, wrote, “As the pressure to regulate artificial intelligence continues to grow, concerns about the potential dangers of this powerful technology are also on the rise. Superpowers, including the U.S., China, the UK and the European Union, recently united in the UK to sign a statement acknowledging the dire threat that AI poses to humankind and stressing the ‘need for international action’ to address this threat.
“In my view, we’ll have achieved artificial general intelligence (AGI) by 2040. In a world marked by hatred, greed and self-interest at the top echelons of business and politics, experts hold differing opinions. Some believe AI fears are unfounded and draw parallels with previous industrial revolutions that eventually proved beneficial. Some argue that AI could potentially pose a significant threat to humanity, necessitating stringent regulation. I’d like to examine past revolutions to project the impact of AI in 2040.
“The First Industrial Revolution, in the 18th century, brought about profound structural changes as agricultural and rural societies transitioned to industrial and urban ones, primarily in Britain. It had a significant impact on employment, displacing manual farm workers with mechanisation. However, over time, people found new opportunities in the textile and iron industries, aided by additional technology developments such as the water wheel and the steam engine, which played pivotal roles in the Industrial Revolution.
“The Second Industrial Revolution occurred in the 19th century, leading into World War I, when existing industries expanded and harnessed electric power for mass production while new initiatives emerged. This period witnessed many important technological advancements, including the invention of the light bulb, the telephone and telephone networks and the internal combustion engine. Transitioning from steam power to electricity resulted in job losses, but those who adapted by re-skilling as electricians retained their positions. New jobs that had never existed before also emerged.
“The Third Industrial Revolution unfolded in the mid-20th century, ushering in the Digital Revolution, characterised by the shift from analogue electronic and mechanical devices to today’s digital technology. This era brought about personal computers, the Internet and information and communications technology. While, initially, many jobs were replaced by computers and robots, those who acquired computer literacy secured employment in newly created jobs. Categories such as software and hardware engineers emerged, extending beyond the countries that had benefited from the Second Industrial Revolution to include many Global South nations.
People worldwide must start finding ways to harmonize and work together toward the responsible use of AI. It is vital to identify the risks associated with AI now and take steps to mitigate these risks. AI systems must be transparent and accountable and used to promote human rights and well-being. If it is used ethically, it will further improve the quality of life for people worldwide. It will be used to address some of the world’s most-pressing challenges, climate change, poverty and disease.
“Now, we are entering the Fourth Industrial Revolution, which builds upon its predecessors. Its full impact remains unclear. This revolution features innovations in AI, biotechnology, nanotechnology, quantum computing, the Internet of Things and other emerging technologies.
“We should prioritise ensuring that everyone possesses the necessary skills to harness the potential of these new technologies. While AI applications may help reduce global inequalities and increase incomes, some experts believe that, among its potential downsides, that AI could pose a severe threat to humanity in the future.
“Some ‘advocate for strict regulation. In my view, this is a problematic approach. As the Swahili saying goes, ‘Dawa ya moto ni moto,’ loosely translated, this is to say that the remedy for extinguishing fire is to use fire.
“We can work to ensure ethical AI by spreading knowledge about AI and fostering a global environment that encourages creativity and innovation while pursuing sustainable regulatory mechanisms. The recent outcomes of the UK AI Summit, at which developers agreed to collaborate with governments to test new frontier models before their release to mitigate the risks of rapidly developing technology, are a promising step.
“Several governments, including the US, the UK, China, and the EU, signed the declaration, though further efforts are needed to engage other AI industry giants in committing to ethical practices. U.S. President Joe Biden’s executive order introduces new guidelines for AI safety, security, privacy, civil rights, equity, workers’ and consumers’ interests, innovation, competition and global leadership. While it may seem insular, it represents a new beginning for monitoring AI development while promoting innovation. China also issued ethics guidelines governing artificial intelligence. These guidelines prioritise protecting users’ rights and preventing risks, aligning with Beijing’s objective of reining in Big Tech’s influence and its aim to become the global leader in AI by 2030.
As we stand on the cusp of the Fourth Industrial Revolution our response to the potential risks and rewards of this era will shape the course of human progress. … Responsible regulation and ethical considerations are crucial to safeguarding humanity while unlocking the vast potential of these innovations.
“While it is true that AI could pose serious challenges, we are still years away from AGI. At least for now, we can take comfort from the researchers in AI and neuroscience who say that current forms of AI cannot experience their own emotions. But they can mimic emotions such as empathy in writing and in vocal conversation; today’s synthesised speech can emit realistic feelings. Perhaps by 2040 our uses of AI might raise more issues, so we must think about human sustainability.
“As we stand on the cusp of the Fourth Industrial Revolution our response to the potential risks and rewards of this era will shape the course of human progress. The lessons from past industrial revolutions, which saw the transformation of job markets and entire societies, should guide us toward embracing the future cautiously and optimistically.
“Responsible regulation and ethical considerations are crucial to safeguarding humanity while unlocking the vast potential of these innovations. Recent collaborative efforts and agreements among superpowers, along with initiatives to ensure equitable skill development, offer hope that we can navigate this revolution successfully. The choice we face is not to restrict knowledge but to spread it.”
Jonathan Kolber
A ‘celebration society’ will emerge as abundance becomes civilization’s natural state
Jonathan Kolber, futurist, member of TechCast Global and author of “A Celebration Society,” predicted, “We may finally stand on the threshold of a sufficient combination of intelligence (via AI), matter (via asteroid mining) and energy (from various clean sources) to provide for effectively unlimited material abundance, which will in future enable the finer values of life as people generally cease having to worry about the lower levels of Maslow’s hierarchy.
“I expect that by 2040 humans will live in multiple ‘geographies’ due to the expected arrival in the 2030s of fully immersive VR with zero latency (enabled in part through AI). This will greatly reduce human needs for matter and energy by enabling instantly and upon demand most of the experiences that people once had to enable through use of physical possessions.
I expect that, by 2040, we will have finally begun to establish a model society founded on consensually-derived principles including … systems of sustainable technological abundance and new institutions appropriate to such a new, ever-evolving model of society. … Contrary to misplaced fears of an AI apocalypse, and assuming that AGI is achieved by 2040 as our AI expert advisors expect, if it is self-aware then such an AGI is far more likely to protect humans from existential mistakes such as nuclear war than to initiate such out of self-interest.
“I expect that, by 2040, we will have finally begun to establish a model society founded on consensually-derived principles including the best available evidence, reliance upon the scientific method for policy and law, systems of sustainable technological abundance and new institutions appropriate to such a new, ever-evolving model of society.
“AI will greatly simplify human life. By running robots that perform those activities we humans do not wish to perform, AI will eliminate most ‘work,’ and those who wish to perform activities will invest themselves in alternative actions they desire (e.g., gardening, public service).
“Contrary to misplaced fears of an AI apocalypse, and assuming that AGI is achieved by 2040 as our AI expert advisors expect, if it is self-aware then such an AGI is far more likely to protect humans from existential mistakes such as nuclear war than to initiate such out of self-interest. Further, of its own volition, it will take very little interest in the physical universe, due to the fact that self-aware AGI will experience time as essentially frozen on a physical level. (My essay, ‘An AI Epiphany,’ explains the logic supporting this assertion.)
“We will lose the basis for our present ‘scarcity game,’ which has arguably been the core element of human existence through almost all of history. The implementation of a new and continuing ‘abundance game’ will require a fundamental rethinking of everything from our very first principles a megaproject for which AGI will be uniquely well-suited because it will lack our biological imperatives toward what Dan Arielly calls ‘predictable irrationality.’”
Mauro Rios
Humans will remain dominant in their core traits
Mauro D. Ríos, adviser to the eGovernment Agency of Uruguay and director of the Uruguayan Internet Society chapter, said, “AI is not a weekend experiment, it has some of the most inquiring minds behind it and some of the coolest talents. The first thing we must do is trust in humanity; the second thing we must do is not think that the problems are only technological issues. Technology will always solve its dilemmas. Technical problems have a limited life, and we will solve them and evolve both the software and the hardware.
The future will bring us surprises, but humanity will maintain its authenticity as the beings who are conscious and rational, hegemonic and proactive entities of the world to come. Whether we will retain the dominant role on Earth in the future is not open to question.
“AI challenges us as humanity, and the fact that humanity understands it must be poised to take action to guarantee individuals’ rights and dignity, and to guarantee us superiority over AI is something that is uniquely human: self-awareness. AI will undoubtedly bring about the greatest industrial revolution humanity has ever seen and it is perhaps the most beneficial technology we will see for generations to come. The blame for imprecise or mistaken outcomes that some collectives and corporations attribute to AI is unjustified. Like all technology, tools like AI are basically neutral. Most aberrations from the positive are due poor training and programming of AI or to humans’ malicious uses of AI.
“The future will bring us surprises, but humanity will maintain its authenticity as the beings who are conscious and rational, hegemonic and proactive entities of the world to come. Whether we will retain the dominant role on Earth in the future is not open to question. Domination implies a power relationship between entities that can be subjects or agents of action or inaction. We can only speculate or project our expectations or fears regarding AI and our relationship with it. But I believe we will continue to be in command and retain final control of AI.”
Brad Templeton
AIs should be trained on ‘Lennonism’: All you need is love
Brad Templeton, chairman emeritus at the Electronic Freedom Foundation, said, “It’s almost impossible to speculate as far out as 2040. Some very science-fiction level scenarios are possible, from utopias to nightmares, but it’s also possible that today’s promising avenues will be dead ends, and it is almost certain that things nobody has envisioned will appear.
“Some imagine AIs might replace us or keep us as pets. Others imagine a world of AIs as smart as, or smarter than us but which are property that is programmed to make a utopia. The whole spectrum looks more and more within the realm of the possible by 2040. Most hope for AIs that are property, capable but without their own will. That may be what we see in 2040.
As we move beyond 2040 to having AIs that possess their own will, I advocate ‘Lennonism’: ‘All you need is love.’ The ideal would be to create beings that love us just as we are also programmed to love our parents/creators, and thus be caring in that sense.
As we move beyond 2040 to having AIs that possess their own will, I advocate ‘Lennonism’: ‘All you need is love.’ The ideal would be to create beings that love us just as we are also programmed to love our parents/creators, and thus be caring in that sense.
“While AIs are property, the main questions will revolve around what humans who own them do with them. There will be grand things, particularly in medicine and education as well as entertainment. Transportation, construction (offering housing and mobility for all) will also be improved, and we can hope that AIs can reduce the bureaucracy and paperwork of modern life. But much disruption is ahead.”
Continue reading: A selection of future scenarios; how things might play out