Their views on survey queries
In this canvassing, prior to being asked the big qualitative question, digital technology builders and analysts were asked to think about the impact of AI on 25 different aspects of people’s personal lives and societal systems by the year 2040. Around 250 experts answered these questions and their views are below:
The chart depicts a survey conducted by Elon University that asked experts to weigh in on the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on people’s personal lives by the year 2040. The experts were asked whether they believed the impact of AI would be far more/somewhat more negative than positive, equally positive and negative, or far more/somewhat more positive than negative.
The chart shows that a majority of experts believe that AI will have a positive impact on most aspects of people’s personal lives by the year 2040. However, there is also a significant portion of experts who believe that AI will have a negative impact on some aspects of personal lives.
Here’s a breakdown of the expert’s views on the impact of AI on various aspects of people’s personal lives:
People’s privacy: The largest percentage of experts, 79%, believe that AI will have a far more/somewhat more positive impact on people’s privacy. Only 7% of experts believe the impact will be far more/somewhat more negative, while 12% believe the impact will be equally positive and negative.
People’s basic human rights: A majority of experts, 54%, believe that AI will have a positive impact on people’s basic human rights. However, a significant portion, 20%, believe the impact will be negative, and 23% believe the impact will be neutral.
People’s relationship with others: A plurality of experts, 46%, believe that AI will have a positive impact on people’s relationships with others. However, there are also significant portions of experts who believe the impact will be negative (15%) or neutral (33%).
People’s opportunities for employment: The experts are more divided on the impact of AI on job opportunities. 43% believe the impact will be positive, 27% believe it will be negative, and 29% believe it will be neutral.
People’s access to knowledge/information from accurate, trusted resources: The experts are again divided on this topic, with 34% believing the impact will be positive, 43% believing it will be negative, and 22% believing it will be neutral.
People’s spiritual lives: The experts are unsure about the impact of AI on people’s spiritual lives, with 33% believing the impact will be positive, 28% believing it will be negative, and 27% believing it will be neutral.
People’s interactions with institutions such as government and corporations: Similar to spiritual lives, the experts are unsure about the impact of AI on interactions with institutions, with 31% believing the impact will be positive, 39% believing it will be negative, and 27% believing it will be neutral.
People’s physical and mental health: The experts are again divided on the impact of AI on physical and mental health, with 31% believing the impact will be positive, 30% believing it will be negative, and 35% believing it will be neutral.
People’s civic lives: Similar to physical and mental health, the experts are divided on the impact of AI on civic lives, with 30% believing the impact will be positive, 33% believing it will be negative, and 32% believing it will be neutral.
The way people spend their leisure time: The experts are more divided on the impact of AI on leisure time, with 42% believing the impact will be negative, 24% believing it will be positive, and 30% believing it will be neutral.
Shopping for goods and services: The largest percentage of experts, 71%, believe that AI will have a far more/somewhat more positive impact on the way people shop for goods and services. Only 13% of experts believe the impact will be far more/somewhat more negative, while 16% believe the impact will be equally positive and negative.
People’s day-to-day work tasks and activities: Similar to shopping, the largest percentage of experts, 73%, believe that AI will have a far more/somewhat more positive impact on people’s day-to-day work tasks and activities. Only 8% of experts believe the impact will be far more/somewhat more negative, while 20% believe the impact will be equally positive and negative.
The chart depicts a survey conducted by Elon University’s Digital Future Center which asked experts to weigh in on the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on various social institutions and systems by the year 2050. The experts were asked whether they believed the impact of AI would be far more/somewhat more negative than positive, equally positive and negative, or far more/somewhat more positive than negative.
Here’s a breakdown of the expert’s views on the impact of AI on various social institutions and systems:
Reducing wealth inequalities in society: A majority of experts, 70%, believe that AI will have a positive impact on reducing wealth inequality. Only 4% of experts believe the impact will be negative, while 14% believe the impact will be neutral and 12% are unsure.
Politics and elections: A majority of experts, 67%, believe that AI will have a positive impact on politics and elections. However, a significant portion, 24%, believe the impact will be negative, and 9% are unsure.
Warfare: A majority of experts, 61%, believe that AI will have a positive impact on warfare. However, a significant portion, 23%, believe the impact will be negative, and 16% are unsure.
Level of civility in society: A plurality of experts, 52%, believe that AI will have a positive impact on the level of civility in society. However, there are also significant portions of experts who believe the impact will be negative (12%) or neutral (32%).
Criminal justice systems: The experts are divided on the impact of AI on criminal justice systems, with 40% believing the impact will be positive, 33% believing it will be negative, and 27% are unsure.
Primary and secondary schools: The experts are more divided on the impact of AI on primary and secondary schools, with 26% believing the impact will be positive, 49% believing it will be negative, and 25% are unsure.
Colleges and universities: Similar to primary and secondary schools, the experts are divided on the impact of AI on colleges and universities, with 24% believing the impact will be positive, 51% believing it will be negative, and 25% are unsure.
Environmental protection and sustainability: The experts are divided on the impact of AI on environmental protection and sustainability, with 20% believing the impact will be positive, 52% believing it will be negative, and 28% are unsure.
Quality of life in rural and remote areas: The experts are divided on the impact of AI on the quality of life in rural and remote areas, with 13% believing the impact will be positive, 40% believing it will be negative, and 47% are unsure.
Overall economic performance: The experts are divided on the impact of AI on the overall economic performance, with 12% believing the impact will be positive, 61% believing it will be negative, and 27% are unsure.
Quality of life in cities: The experts are divided on the impact of AI on the quality of life in cities, with 10% believing the impact will be positive, 48% believing it will be negative, and 42% are unsure.
Healthcare systems, quality of medical treatment: A majority of experts, 78%, believe that AI will have a positive impact on healthcare systems and the quality of medical treatment. Only 8% of experts believe the impact will be negative, while 13% are unsure.
Transportation systems’ ability to move people and goods safely and efficiently: A majority of experts, 78%, believe that AI will have a positive impact on transportation systems’ ability to move people and goods safely and efficiently. Only 1% of experts believe the impact will be negative, while 21% are unsure.
More than 50% said they expect the impact of the uses of AI on people’s privacy, wealth inequalities, politics and elections, warfare, basic human rights and level of civility in society will be far more or somewhat more negative than positive by 2040. Most experts were also more concerned than not about the future of people’s relationships with others, their employment opportunities and criminal justice systems.
On the positive side, more than 50% said they expect that people’s uses of AI will have a mostly beneficial effect by 2040 on healthcare and transportation systems, people’s day-to-day work tasks, shopping for goods and services, the overall performance of the economy and environmental protection and sustainability. Many expect a slightly more positive than negative future for formal education systems from K-12 level through higher education, the quality of life in cities and access to knowledge from accurate sources.
The qualitative predictions in this report emerge from a nonscientific canvassing of technology developers, business and policy leaders, researchers, analysts and academics by Elon University’s new Imagining the Digital Future Center. In all, 328 experts responded to at least one aspect of the canvassing, including 251 who answered at least one multiple–choice question and 166 who provided written answers to the key open-ended question. The survey was conducted from Oct. 4 to Nov. 6, 2023.
Continue reading: Thoughts on artificial general intelligence