These experts expected in 2025 that by 2035 there will be…
48% – More negative change than positive change
10% – More positive change than negative change
24% – Fairly equal positive and negative change
11% – Little to no change
Keying off insights about the current state of community and political life, a plurality of these experts believe polarized and fragmented societies are likely to be evermore riven as AI tools advance, diminishing trust in institutions and in social arrangements. A recurring theme among those who are concerned is that while its uses can and will enhance human engagement in many respects, most AI platforms will continue to prioritize the goals of those in power and further empower bad actors. Many who expressed worries briefly commented that their hope is that society will get its act together before it is too late to change. Following is a selection of related quotes extracted from these experts’ longer essays:
“Will reliance on AI and its gatekeeper companies make us distrust our institutions? Or will it be the instigator to change these institutions? Information that is counter to what we believe creates an uncomfortable state of cognitive dissonance. Will false information be interpreted with confirmation bias? We all want to believe in our preferences. Or will AI be used as a tool to catalyze curiosity and what could be? … Human values underlie behavioral norms with a caveat: Context determines how our behaviors manifest our values. Society benefits when individuals can have reasonable expectations of mutual respect of institutions and enterprises. Does the mutual respect exist now in this political economy? Do business enterprises have human values? If they do, how do their behaviors react to existential competition? By not thinking hard about the context of peoples’ lives? Unbounded by AI regulation, in 2035 individuals in the U.S. could face longer but less fulfilling lives. … Our reliance on AI will exceed our ability to fact check it; never mind the existential threat to humankind. In 2035, are we going to have AI tools that feed human curiosity, or be reliant on AI crutches?” – Rosalie R. Day, co-founder at Blomma, a platform providing digital solutions to clinical research studies
“One of the most important concerns is the loss of factual, trusted, commonly shared human knowledge. … Already today most of the most widely viewed ‘news and information’ the public sees about climate change, pandemics, nation-state disagreements, regulation, elections and so on is no longer based in true facts. Instead, we see fake news or unfounded opinions often used to shape perceptions to achieve manipulation of outcomes. The use of AI for deepfakes and more will accelerate this process. This destructive trend could be irreversible because strong financial and political interests profit from it in many ways. … When every ‘fact’ is relativized and open to doubt the capacity for indignation is likely to be reduced. There are no examples in human history of societies that have survived in the absence of shared truth for too long.” – Giacomo Mazzone, global project director for the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction
“Deepfakes have already put a big dent in reality, and it’s only going to get worse. In setting after setting, we will find it impossible to distinguish between the natural and the synthetic. … As we snuggle closer to these intelligences it will be increasingly difficult to distinguish who (or what) did what. … AIs will successfully emulate core human traits. … “We won’t be able to tell whether an artifact was created by a human, an AI or some combination. It will be hard to make claims of chastity credible — and it may simply not matter anymore. ” – Jerry Michalski, longtime speaker, writer and tech trends analyst
“AI‘s ability to curate everything – from entertainment to social connections – could lead to highly personalized but isolated ‘realities.’ This is a trend I call the rise of ‘Citizen Zero,’ where people are living only in the present: disconnected from a shared past, not striving toward any common vision of a future. Human interactions may become more insular as we retreat into algorithmically optimized echo chambers. And, as we already know, millions of pages of research, footnotes and opinion are disappearing daily from the internet whilst the Tech Platforms reach into our phones and erase photos or messages whenever they want – perhaps even without our knowledge – and AI is only going to make that more scalable.“ – Tracey Follows, CEO of Futuremade
“AI will become the attractive nuisance of convenience. We won’t know what we no longer know.” – Henning Schulzrinne, Internet Hall of Fame member, former co-chair, IEEE Internet Technical Committee
“The trend toward polarization, exacerbated by the divergence in human use of digital tools, will create more challenges to humans‘ trust in others, in institutions and in their world views. Already today, we have to question everything we experience in the digital sphere. The need for the application of critical digital literacy skills will increase greatly at a time in which most people may not be inclined or able to implement them. Determining who and what to trust will be a significant life skill that some will develop but many will not. Each person’s management of their digital selves will strongly impact personal agency.” – Charlie Firestone, president of the Rose Bowl Institute, previously vice president and executive vice president at The Aspen Institute
“I am particularly interested in the impact of the broadening of our awareness and knowledge beyond ourselves to ‘others.’ I am hopeful that this will bring about a much greater sensitivity to the ethics and ramifications of our actions beyond our immediate wants to seek inclusive progress in the human condition and beyond. … I do believe we will become less selfish and more oriented to finding solutions to problems or opportunities that will serve both our personal needs/wants, but also those of others. The addition of a broadly-shared conscience will help accelerate the improvements felt by others. The synergies will create a sea-change in the way people treat one another and support the collective good.” – Ray Schroeder, professor emeritus and former associate vice chancellor for online learning at the University of Illinois-Springfield